Microsoft’s Bing or DuckDuckGo in all probability gained’t disrupt Google’s dominance in search, mentioned Apple senior vice chairman of providers Eddy Cue — however AI providers simply might.
Cue was returning to a courtroom in Washington, DC the place he final testified within the Justice Division’s trial in opposition to Google’s search monopoly in September 2023. Through the present treatments trial on Wednesday, Cue mentioned that within the time since, well-funded generative AI upstarts have made such vital developments that they may finally disrupt that monopoly — maybe extra successfully than the court docket might.
Cue was additionally, nonetheless, there to defend a big supply of Apple’s income: the funds Google presents for default search engine placement on Apple’s Safari browser.
After the 2023 trial, Choose Amit Mehta discovered that Google illegally monopolized the web search market, partially via agreements just like the Safari deal. For the final two and a half weeks, Google and the DOJ have pitched Mehta on what he ought to (or shouldn’t) do to repair the issue. The DOJ says Google needs to be pressured to share useful search knowledge with rivals and spin off its Chrome browser, whereas Google (which plans to enchantment the sooner ruling) desires solely restrictions on the offers Mehta deemed unfairly exclusionary. And quite than barring its Apple deal altogether, it might make Google give Apple more flexibility to signal extra default search agreements throughout its varied units or in personal looking mode.
Cue argued Wednesday that fast AI developments imply the antitrust risk Mehta recognized is shrinking. For the primary time in 22 years, Cue mentioned, Apple noticed search quantity decline in its Safari browser final month — a facet impact of customers in search of extra data from AI chatbots. The DOJ, unsurprisingly, disagrees. It’s not unusual for technological growth to outpace the gradual trudge of the court docket system, however the authorities says that tempo isn’t quick sufficient to repair a persistent market problem.
Apple has numerous pores and skin within the recreation right here — the DOJ beforehand revealed it rakes in $20 billion in funds from Google yearly. Google’s proposed treatments might scale back it, however they’d additionally open up Apple’s choices and protect a lot of its income circulation. The DOJ’s, in the meantime, might wipe out that money circulation altogether. Cue appeared bewildered that Apple might get the quick finish of the stick for a punishment supposedly inflicted on Google. The concept the court docket might determine Google did one thing flawed after which let it lower your expenses at Apple’s expense, he mentioned, “simply appears loopy to me.”
Google might even preserve its prime Safari placement with out a deal within the quick time period, Cue mentioned. “We don’t actually have a alternative at the moment,” he testified. Even when Apple might minimize a brand new default cope with one other firm, Google continues to be the very best service obtainable for purchasers, in order that they’d in all probability search it out — and Apple wouldn’t get a minimize. Cue mentioned he’s “misplaced numerous sleep” over the prospect of shedding the Google deal, and warned it might affect Apple’s capacity to make new merchandise.
Cue additionally instructed Mehta he “can’t say I disagree” together with his evaluation that Apple was disincentivized from constructing its personal search engine due to its cope with Google. However, he added, “we are able to’t do all the things,” and since Google is admittedly good at what it does, Apple prefers to give attention to areas the place it might probably supply distinctive worth.
There’s “a lot larger potential as a result of there are new entrants which might be attacking the issue differently”
AI might finally change all of this, Cue testified. Apple is already exploring including AI search choices, although it acknowledges they’ll’t but exchange conventional serps. “Up to now, they’re simply not adequate,” he mentioned.
Cue mentioned “adequate” might come prior to he anticipated. He mentioned there’s “a lot larger potential as a result of there are new entrants which might be attacking the issue differently.” Giant language mannequin (LLM) AI firms haven’t constructed a sturdy sufficient search index to substitute for Google but, he mentioned, however combining an LLM with search might allow them to use a smaller index successfully quickly.
Despite the fact that he’s backing Google’s combat to maintain its search offers, he appeared to acknowledge that the DOJ’s proposal to syndicate Google’s search index might get AI rivals up to the mark even sooner.
Cue cautioned the choose that tech shouldn’t be like different industries, and giants usually fall even with out court docket intervention. “After I acquired to Silicon Valley, all the finest firms, or probably the most profitable firms, both don’t exist at the moment or are considerably smaller and fewer impactful,” Cue mentioned, pointing to firms like HP, Solar Microsystems, and Intel. Within the expertise area, being an incumbent may not supply the identical advantages it does in different markets. “We’re not an oil firm, we’re not toothpaste. These are issues which might be going to final eternally,” he mentioned. “You might not want an iPhone 10 years from now.” After practically 4 many years at Apple, Cue now sees AI as “an enormous technological shift.”
Placing himself within the choose’s footwear, Cue instructed Mehta, “we’re fortunate, as a result of truthfully, if AI had not come about, I don’t know what you can do.” That’s as a result of, he defined, “till there are really aggressive merchandise, folks will preserve utilizing the very best one.”